J.D. Vance Leads 2028 GOP Field in New Hampshire, But National Tensions Mount
Despite a surge in national skepticism, J.D. Vance remains the dominant force in early polling for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — at least in New Hampshire. According to a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll released November 24, 2025, Vance commands 57% support among GOP voters in the Granite State, a staggering lead that would make him the prohibitive favorite if the primary season started tomorrow. The poll, conducted by the academic research arm of Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire, comes just weeks after the conclusion of the first term of the hypothetical Trump-Vance administration, with Vance serving as the 49th Vice President under President Donald Trump. Yet beneath this commanding number lies a growing unease — one that national data and political analysts say could unravel his momentum.
Why New Hampshire Matters More Than You Think
New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary isn’t just tradition — it’s a political pressure cooker. Candidates who underperform here often never recover. Vance, however, hasn’t even tried to win it yet. He made just one campaign stop in the state during 2024, solely to support the Trump-Vance ticket. That’s not a campaign. It’s a cameo. And yet, voters here still see him as their top choice. That’s not just loyalty. It’s a sign of how deeply his identity is tied to Trump’s political project.The poll results were stark: Ron DeSantis, once the presumed heir apparent, sits at 7%. Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Tulsi Gabbard each draw 4%. Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin, both considered serious contenders, barely register at 1%. These aren’t just numbers — they’re the quiet death of a generation of GOP establishment figures who thought they could outmaneuver Trump’s legacy.
National Numbers Tell a Different Story
While New Hampshire voters are all-in on Vance, the rest of the country isn’t so sure. The RealClearPolitics national poll average, updated through late November 2025, shows Vance at 46%, a solid lead but far from invincible. Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis are tied at 10%. Marco Rubio sits at 8.5%. Nikki Haley, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others hover around 4%. Even more telling: 11% of Republican voters say they’re backing someone not listed in the top tier — a sign of restlessness.What’s missing from RealClearPolitics’ data? Names like Ted Cruz, Glenn Youngkin, and Vivek Ramaswamy are tracked but not individually quantified. That’s not an oversight — it’s a signal. The field is too crowded, too volatile, and too dependent on Trump’s shadow to be cleanly mapped. Vance’s dominance isn’t built on broad appeal. It’s built on the absence of alternatives.
The AOL Contradiction: Is Vance’s Lead Collapsing?
Here’s the twist: AOL, the Yahoo! Inc.-owned news platform, published an article claiming Vance’s lead is “collapsing because of his association with Trump.” No poll is cited. No expert named. No date provided. Just a vague warning wrapped in anxiety.That’s the problem with modern political reporting. One outlet publishes a rigorous, methodologically sound poll with a 95% confidence interval. Another drops a headline based on a whisper from an unnamed analyst. But here’s the thing — the whisper might be right. Vance’s numbers are high because voters see him as Trump’s chosen successor. That’s a strength in a party still loyal to Trump. But it’s a liability if Trump’s popularity dips — or if voters tire of dynasty politics.
Think about it: In 2016, Ted Cruz led in Iowa. In 2024, DeSantis led in Florida. Neither survived the national test. Vance’s problem isn’t his polling. It’s his narrative. He’s not running as a reformer. He’s running as the heir. And heirs don’t always inherit the throne — especially when the king’s legacy is still being debated.
What Happens When Trump’s Shadow Fades?
The real question isn’t whether Vance can win New Hampshire. It’s whether he can win South Carolina. Or Texas. Or Michigan. His support is concentrated in the Trump base. But the GOP’s future depends on expanding beyond it — attracting independents, suburban moderates, and younger voters who associate Trump with division, not victory.DeSantis has a shot if he can rebrand as the “post-Trump conservative.” Trump Jr. could pull off a populist surge if he leans into his name. Rubio has policy depth. Haley has cross-party appeal. But Vance? He’s the candidate who won’t run against Trump. He’s the candidate who can’t run without him.
That’s not a strategy. It’s a hostage situation.
What’s Next? The 2026 Wildcard
The next 12 months will be critical. If Trump announces a 2028 run — even as a non-candidate — Vance’s numbers could crater overnight. Voters don’t want a placeholder. They want a leader. And if Trump is still dominating headlines, no one else will get a fair shot.Conversely, if Trump’s legal troubles mount, his public approval slips, or he withdraws from politics entirely, Vance’s base could fracture. The same voters who now see him as the natural successor might suddenly crave someone untainted by the chaos of the Trump years.
Meanwhile, the Saint Anselm College Survey Center will release its next poll in March 2026. That’s when we’ll know if Vance’s lead is a mirage — or the foundation of a movement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is J.D. Vance leading in New Hampshire despite minimal campaigning?
Vance’s dominance stems from his role as Vice President in the Trump administration, not active campaigning. New Hampshire GOP voters, who value loyalty to Trump, see him as the natural successor. His low profile hasn’t hurt him because he’s not seen as a rival — he’s seen as Trump’s chosen heir, and that’s enough in a party still anchored to Trump’s brand.
How reliable is the Saint Anselm College poll compared to national averages?
The Saint Anselm poll is highly reliable for New Hampshire — it’s been tracking state politics since 2008 with academic rigor. But it’s not predictive of national outcomes. RealClearPolitics’ national average, which aggregates over 20 polls, gives a broader view. Vance’s 57% in NH versus 46% nationally suggests his appeal is concentrated, not universal.
Could Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump Jr. overtake Vance in 2028?
Yes — but only if Trump’s influence wanes. DeSantis has policy credibility and a record as governor. Trump Jr. has name recognition and populist energy. But both lack Vance’s direct access to Trump’s voter base. If Trump endorses Vance, they’re dead in the water. If Trump stays silent or backs someone else, the race explodes open.
Why does the AOL article claim Vance’s lead is collapsing?
The AOL piece cites an unnamed expert warning that Vance’s tie to Trump could become toxic if public opinion shifts. It’s not based on polling — it’s a speculative analysis. But it’s not baseless. Voters who supported Trump for economic or cultural reasons may turn away if they see Vance as merely a continuation, not a renewal. That’s the risk.
What role does the 2026 midterm election play in Vance’s nomination chances?
If Republicans lose seats in 2026, it could signal voter fatigue with Trumpism — which would hurt Vance. If they gain ground, it reinforces the idea that Trump’s brand is still dominant, strengthening Vance’s position. Midterms act as a referendum on the administration’s first two years, and Vance’s fate is tied to that verdict.
Is J.D. Vance’s background as a U.S. Senator from Ohio a help or a hindrance?
It’s a mixed bag. His Ohio roots give him working-class credibility, which Trump voters admire. But he’s also associated with the MAGA movement’s most divisive moments in the Senate. Voters who want a unifying figure may see him as too polarizing. His Senate record doesn’t expand his appeal — it deepens his ties to Trump’s brand, which could limit his national reach.
